June 25, 2025
By Iqra Manzoor
LAHORE
Once again, Pakistan’s largest yet least populated province is under the spotlight — not for a new outbreak of violence, but for the continuation of a long-standing insurgency that has simmered for decades. Balochistan has endured persistent unrest, yet recent incidents have reignited national and international attention to the province’s protracted conflict, marked by deadly attacks on security forces, state institutions, and civilians. Far from a sudden escalation, the violence reflects a deeply rooted struggle shaped by ethnic nationalism, political exclusion, socio-economic deprivation, and a volatile security landscape.
Deadly incidents spark fresh concern
On March 11, the recent attack on the Jaffar Express — a passenger train frequently targeted by separatist elements — and the killing of eight Pakistani migrant workers in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province on April 12, claimed by a Baloch militant faction with operations in both Pakistan and Iran, have brought renewed focus to the region’s fragile security situation. Other attacks have also been reported during the conflict of India and Pakistan.
Following these incidents, a particularly alarming development unfolded in Mastung district, where unknown armed men reportedly launched coordinated attacks in the Khadkocha and Kirdgab areas. According to officials, the assailants stormed a Levies post, engaged in a heavy exchange of fire, took security personnel hostage, and seized official weapons. The attackers then set fire to government offices, including those of the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), a judicial magistrate, and the assistant commissioner.
In a further show of force, the armed men blocked the Quetta-Karachi Highway, stopping vehicles and checking passengers’ national identity cards. Eyewitnesses reported that the militants remained on the highway for over an hour and even burst the tyres of a truck, sending a clear message of defiance to state authority.
‘This conflict has deep roots’
Speaking to Voicepk, Saleem Shahid, senior correspondent for Dawn, described the situation as part of a broader pattern of long-standing unrest in the province.
“This is not the first time that such incidents have taken place in Balochistan. Violence in the region notably escalated after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006,” Shahid said. “These attacks have continued over the years, and while they are gaining attention now, the conflict has deep and historic roots.”
Commenting on speculation around whether the ongoing Iran-Israel tensions could be linked to the spike in militant activity in Balochistan, Shahid dismissed the notion of a direct connection.
“I highly doubt that the Israel-Iran conflict has anything to do with what’s happening here. The insurgency in Balochistan is a decades-old issue, rooted in local grievances. However, there is always the possibility that militant groups might exploit such global conflicts to ramp up their operations,” he explained.
Shahid also noted a pattern of increased militant activity during periods of heightened India-Pakistan tensions.
“We’ve observed that during times of standoff between India and Pakistan, there have been notable spikes in militant attacks in the province. The Jaffer Express attack, for instance, occurred at a larger scale and comes amid renewed accusations from Pakistan that India is supporting militant activities in Balochistan,” he said.
Citing the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian national accused by Pakistani authorities of espionage, Shahid pointed to a potential state actor’s involvement in the unrest.
“If we consider that Kulbhushan was arrested from Balochistan and allegedly worked for Indian intelligence agencies, then it’s not far-fetched to assume that state involvement in such violent attacks is a possibility,” he said. “But again, I don’t see any link between the current violence in Balochistan and the Israel-Iran conflict.”
‘Insurgency is indigenous’
Speaking to Voicepk, Habib Tahir, former Vice Chairperson of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) in Balochistan, described the insurgency as an indigenous movement rooted in decades of political and historical grievances.
“The insurgency in Balochistan is a decades-old issue, and in my personal opinion, it is indigenous in nature. It dates back to the province’s controversial merger with Pakistan in 1948, followed by Bhutto’s era from 1970 onwards, when the National Awami Party (NAP) was banned and fragmented into several offshoots,” he said.
Tahir emphasized that while militant groups in Balochistan have openly stated they would accept support from external actors if offered, there is no credible evidence linking foreign states directly or indirectly to the ongoing unrest.
“The state has repeatedly alleged Indian involvement, and Iran has its own internal movements. But where is the proof? We cannot implicate other countries based on assumptions or geopolitical hypotheses without concrete evidence,” he asserted.
Referring to the Jaffar Express attack, Tahir pointed out a concerning development.
“Weapons used in the attack were reportedly American-made, left behind in Afghanistan. While this raises questions, I personally believe there’s no direct involvement of any country right now,” he said.
He added that while regional powers may have strategic interests, particularly Iran with its trade networks in border areas, no conclusive evidence exists of active foreign interference.
“Iran supplies oil and goods to bordering areas in Balochistan, and the recent closure of petrol and electricity by Iran to these areas is causing serious problems for local communities. But this seems more about local dynamics than international conspiracies.”
Tahir emphasized that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies must be more forthcoming with evidence if they claim foreign involvement.
“Our agencies are strong and smart. If there is indeed any external support for the militants, it is their responsibility to present verifiable evidence. There might be some organizations or bodies providing resources to these groups, but again, our institutions should know and disclose this clearly,” he concluded.
‘Insurgency fueled by external forces, but rooted in governance failure’
Contrary to the view that the insurgency in Balochistan is entirely homegrown, Mujeeb Ahmad, Bureau Chief of Aaj News in Balochistan, believes that foreign support plays a critical role in sustaining the militant campaign — but that internal state failures are equally to blame.
“The insurgency in Balochistan is not truly indigenous. It is being supported by external actors — Iran, Afghanistan, and India. These countries finance militant groups operating in the region,” he told Voicepk. “Many incidents, especially in Makran, are carried out by militants who then escape into Iran, incidents happen in other areas and militants escape to Afghanistan. Our borders are porous, and while the Iran border movement has stalled due to the Israel-Iran conflict, the Afghan border remains open.”
Ahmad also pointed to the strategic vulnerabilities in Balochistan’s vast and sparsely populated geography, particularly major highways like the Quetta-Karachi route, which militants frequently exploit.
“Security presence is limited due to the size of the province. Militants identify gaps, carry out attacks, and then vanish. For instance, they set up checkpoints, demand identity cards from travelers, and target those from Punjab — all with little to no immediate resistance.”
While intelligence-based operations (IBOs) are being conducted, Ahmad warned that they often lead to casualties on both sides without significantly weakening militant groups. Of greater concern, he said, is the growing local sympathy for militants, especially among Baloch youth.
“That’s the real question — why are these groups receiving public support? The truth is, many young people in Balochistan now celebrate these attacks. The militant groups are offering them a form of livelihood, while the state fails to deliver even the most basic services.”
Ahmad linked the insurgency to chronic governance failures in the province. Despite Balochistan receiving an annual development budget, he said, funds rarely translate into real services on the ground.
“Quetta is the capital, yet it lacks proper roads, medical facilities, and educational institutions. The budget allocated to the province ends up in the pockets of a few individuals. If Balochistan had even basic governance, the situation might not have spiraled to this point.”
He further alleged that militant groups have shared intelligence with Indian and Israeli agencies, exploiting the region’s instability.
“Foreign actors want to destabilize Pakistan, and Balochistan is the most vulnerable front. We’ve seen evidence of Baloch insurgents sharing information with India and Israel. But external interference only thrives when internal systems are broken.”
Ahmad also mentioned Iran’s strategic interest in the region, citing the Chabahar Port, which Iran views as a rival to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port.
“Iran knows that a fully functional Gwadar Port could limit Chabahar’s influence. That may explain why Iran would indirectly support unrest in Balochistan. But again, such international maneuvering is common. It’s our own state’s responsibility to shield the province through development, not just security.”
In conclusion, Ahmad stressed that military operations may offer short-term control, but only political solutions, economic justice, and credible governance can dismantle the insurgency at its roots.
“Security forces can only do so much. If we don’t address the genuine grievances of the people, the insurgency will grow — not shrink. The youth of Balochistan are suffering and being exploited, and the real solution lies in delivering what was promised to them.”
Development over force: A way forward?
The ongoing violence in Balochistan is neither new nor easily dismissed. While accusations of foreign interference persist, experts emphasize that these threats are compounded by internal dysfunction — from institutional neglect to governance failure. As militant groups grow bolder and local support for them widens, mere military operations appear insufficient. Without a meaningful shift toward political inclusion, economic investment, and social justice, the entrenched cycle of insurgency and counterinsurgency in Balochistan is unlikely to end.