April 13, 2025
By Asmatullah Niazi
Once, the mighty River Indus was known as the ‘Lion River’ because of its consistent and abundant water flow. It supplied water to the entire country, stretching from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Punjab’s plains and then flowing furiously down to the river’s tail in Sindh.
Now, the river has become a sad shadow of itself, with less than half of its original volume – having been facing a severe water crisis. It has been receiving less water thanks to depleting glaciers in the northern mountains, which in turn are heavily impacted by climate change and global warming.
Among all the regions, Sindh has suffered the worst. The situation is specifically dire at the three major barrages on the Indus River within Sindh – the Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri Barrages. These barrages are crucial for distributing irrigation water across the province.
This is a significant figure indicating a massive shortfall in the water supply needed for agriculture in Sindh. This reduction is directly linked to depleted levels of the upstream dams, Tarbela and Mangla. These dams are major reservoirs that release water downstream, and their low levels directly translate to less water reaching Sindh.
Since the province is receiving half the irrigation water than what it is meant to receive, Sindh too has reported a water shortage by half, with Guddu Barrage recording a 10.3 percent shortage and Sukkur Barrage a 66.3 percent shortage by mid-March.
At Kotri Barrage, the situation is particularly alarming, with all four canals receiving 56% less water. This shortage may severely impact the Kharif crop on approximately 8 million acres of land, affecting crops such as rice, maize, cotton, and sugarcane. Chief Engineer Kotri Barrage says that the water situation is usually similar in April, but the Indus River System
Authority (IRSA) which is responsible for administering the Indus water resources, warned last month that country may face 35% less water due to less rains in the country.
Pakistan’s ‘Green initiative’
Despite severe warnings from climate experts and hydrologists, Pakistan’s federal government appears determined to construct six new canals to irrigate the Cholistan desert, amid widespread protests and reservations about the project’s success. Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz and Army Chief Gen Asim Munir inaugurated the project on February 15, sparking strong reactions.
A noted hydrologist Dr Hassan Abbas, known for opposing large dam and canal projects, disputes the notion of water scarcity in the Indus River. As of April 8, he stated that 67,000 cusecs of water were available, yet the river received only 190 cusecs.
The question arises: where did the remaining water go? According to the Dr Abbas , the 67,000 cusecs were flowing through major link canals, indicating no shortage in the river itself. Instead, the issue lies in the development of ill-conceived projects that disregard downstream needs. Prominent hydrologists and water experts have criticized the new canal projects, predicting they will fail. They argue that transferring water through canals to deserts like Cholistan or Thar is impractical, citing the example of the Rajasthan Canal project, which aimed to irrigate the Rajasthan Desert by diverting water from three Indian rivers.
While the federal government and cabinet ministers, belonging to PML-N, claim that the canal project has President Asif Ali Zardari’s endorsement, he and the PPP chairman have remained silent on the matter. In contrast, the Sindh Assembly has adopted a resolution presented by Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, rejecting all six canals, including the Cholistan Canal. The resolution strongly opposes these projects, deeming them a violation of the 1991 Water Accord and an attempt to deprive Sindh of its rightful share of water from the Indus River, which is crucial for irrigation and drinking water.
The Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991 is a significant source of conflict over water distribution and allocation among provinces due to its complex and unclear rules. This ambiguity highlights the need for clearer guidelines and more effective water management. The accord allocated specific water shares to each province but lacked clarity on calculation methods. To address this, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) was established to regulate accord implementation and develop operating rules for water allocation. IRSA uses a three-tier process to forecast available water for the next crop season, identifying two key thresholds: average water use (1979-1982 proportions) and baseline water volume for allocation.
International law
International water law addresses and recognizes the rights of downstream communities to access and utilize water resources and these are based on two key principles, equitable and reasonable utilization – water resources should be shared equitably and reasonably among riparian states, considering factors like population, economic activity, and environmental impact. The second principle is that of there being no significant harm – international law emphasizes that states should ensure their water use does not cause significant harm to other riparian states or communities.
There is another condition, that of prior notification and consultation, i.e. states should notify and consult with each other about planned water projects that may affect shared water resources. The United Nations Watercourses Convention (1997) provides a framework for the management of transboundary watercourses, emphasizing cooperation, equitable utilization, and no significant harm.
The Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers (1966) offers guidelines for the management of international water resources, focusing on equitable utilization and no significant harm. downstream communities have the right to access to water for their basic needs, such as drinking water, sanitation, and irrigation. The international laws provide significant protection from harm from upstream activities that may cause significant damage to their water resources or livelihoods.
It also stresses for participation in decision-making and the planning and management of water resources that affect their interests. In conclusion, the water crisis in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, demands immediate attention and action.
The federal government’s plans to construct new canals, despite expert warnings and downstream communities’ concerns, threaten to exacerbate the situation. It is essential to prioritize equitable and reasonable water utilization, protect downstream communities’ rights, and ensure transparent decision-making processes. The government must reconsider its approach and work towards sustainable water management, considering the needs of all provinces and communities.