December 5, 2024
By Xari Jalil
LAHORE
The International Crisis Group (ICG) has released a context report about the recent deadlock in Pakistan especially since after the November 26 incident in Islamabad where there was a State crackdown on Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) protesters. The report examines the extent to which high political tensions are affecting the government and parliament’s ability to operate, especially post general elections held in February this year. It is based on more than 60 interviews conducted between February and October 2024 with Pakistani political leaders, parliamentarians, including women lawmakers, former officials, political and security analysts and businesspeople.
The ICG forsees a bumpy road because of inter-party tensions.
“The Sharif government is attempting to use carrots and sticks, offering dialogue but continuing to crack down on the PTI-led opposition,” says ICG in its report ‘Disputed Polls and Political Furies: Handling Pakistan’s Deadlock’.
ICG says that PTI is trying to combine popular mobilisation and also trying to reach out to an incensed military top brass, hoping to get back in the fray but this has all been in vain. However, the conflict is not limited to only intra-party politics, it observes, as every democratic institution is suffering the consequences of this logjam.
A fragile executive has to prove itself in addressing economic and security challenges. The parliament is slowly becoming a venue for protest rather than lawmaking. The judiciary is overburdened and is under pressure to deliver results that all political contenders will find acceptable.
“Islamabad ground to a standstill last week as supporters of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister, took to the streets, claiming February’s elections were stolen from his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). Although protests have subsided, there is little indication that the government and PTI opposition are prepared to break the deadlock. The longer this impasse drags on, the harder it will be for the government to address mounting economic and security threats, for parliament to legislate through consensus, or for the judiciary to deliver impartial justice. The risk of violence remains ever-present, and the very foundation of Pakistan’s parliamentary democracy is at stake. The PTI must step away from violent street action and hardline rhetoric, instead seeking to work with rivals in parliament on shared priorities. For its part, the government must recognize that dialogue is unlikely while its crackdown on the PTI persists.” – ICG
Election Trouble
The polls held on February 8 took place in the shadow of a military-led campaign to prosecute PTI members in response to the rampage on May 9, 2023 in which the party’s supporters attacked military properties and installations.
Top leaders including Khan were imprisoned on charges ranging from graft to subverting national security, and caretaker governments in the centre and the provinces denied the PTI the space to campaign afforded to its opponents. The election commission also denied the party a common symbol on paper ballots, forcing it to field candidates as independents.
The elections brought a coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and amid allegations of rigging, the following months were immersed in political strife.
In the run-up to the balloting, caretaker governments at both the national and provincial level cracked down on the PTI and sought to silence critics in civil society and the media.
Imprisoned since August 2023, former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the PTI refuse to recognize the new government’s legitimacy, maintaining their claims that their mandate was stolen though vote rigging and tampering. Backed by other smaller parties, Khan’s party has been resorting to protests both within and outside the parliament.
Mass demonstrations led by PTI in November, after similar ones in September and October, brought major cities to a grinding halt and inflamed tensions.
Violence Before Election Day
Even before the elections, a spike in violence in the run-up to election day raised alarm in many parts of Pakistan.
An array of militant groups – from Baloch nationalist hardliners to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – claimed attacks on political rallies, election offices and the homes of leaders of all major parties, particularly in the conflict-hit provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that border Afghanistan.
Just a day before the vote, at least 28 people were killed and over 50 wounded in two bomb blasts outside candidates’ offices in Balochistan’s Pishin and Qilla Saifullah districts. Almost two dozen militant attacks took place mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan on polling day, killing scores of security personnel – many of whom had been deployed to guard voting stations – and civilians.
In the rest of the country, however, polling went ahead relatively smoothly.
Communication Blackout
Using these security threats as a reason, the federal caretaker government imposed a countrywide communications blackout on election day, including a shutdown of mobile phone and internet services, and blocked social media platform X.
Many election observers and analysts believe the blackout was simply aimed at misleading and deterring PTI voters.
Turnout in the polls was 46.9 per cent, far less than the 53 per cent participation in the 2013 elections and the 51 per cent rate in 2018, largely because of security fears and the clampdown on opposition campaigning. In absolute numbers, half of all eligible voters did not exercise their right of franchise. Turnout was particularly low among women; the nationwide gender gap of 17.4 per cent meant that 10.2 million fewer women voted than men.
No party won enough seats to enable it to form a government. But with 93 directly elected seats (of the 266 available), PTI-backed candidates emerged as the largest bloc in the National Assembly, followed by the PML-N with 75 and the PPP with 54. The PML-N’s representation subsequently increased as nine independent candidates – including some PTI-backed ones – joined its ranks.
As the largest parliamentary bloc, the PTI-backed candidates could have formed a government had they forged an alliance with another major party. But the party’s leadership was disinclined to join forces with a rival. Instead, the party insisted it had the right to form a government by itself, adding that it could still do so if its “stolen votes” were returned. In response, and after prolonged negotiations, the PML-N and PPP eventually reached agreement on a coalition government in late February.
‘Stolen Mandate’
PTI leaders and other opposition parties reiterated their allegations of tampering after the election commission uploaded the final results on its website on 5 March.31 The PTI’s secretary-general called Shehbaz Sharif’s cabinet “fake and unconstitutional” because it was the result of a “stolen mandate”.
Alongside public protests, the PTI lodged a series of appeals in election tribunals and superior courts, hoping that these bodies would overturn its candidates’ supposed defeats at the polls.
Disruption in Parliament
Besides the rolling protests, the costs of Pakistan’s political standoff are increasingly tangible. The PML-N-led ruling coalition has the numbers to push through legislation in the National Assembly, but it has little chance of doing so smoothly. Since the February election, PTI-backed lawmakers have sought to disrupt every parliamentary session. Similar protests have been held in the Punjab and Sindh legislatures.
Protests and Prosecutions
PTI staged significant protests in late September and early October, defying government bans. These demonstrations, fueled by allegations of election fraud and Khan’s arrest, escalated into violent clashes with police in cities like Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Hundreds were arrested.
Despite initial setbacks and government crackdowns, the PTI resumed its protest efforts in late November. Khan issued an ultimatum to party members to participate or face expulsion. However, government intervention, including legal restrictions, arrests, and deployment of security forces, prevented the protests from materializing.
The political standoff between the PTI and the government continues to escalate, with violent protests, parliamentary disruptions, and rising tensions. Despite attempts at reconciliation, the two sides remain deeply divided, with the PTI demanding the restoration of its “stolen mandate” and the release of Imran Khan, while the government insists on accountability for the May 9 riots. The military’s involvement in the political crisis remains a key factor, with the government enjoying its support and the PTI struggling to gain leverage. The future of Pakistani politics hangs in the balance, with the potential for further instability and violence.
The government of Shehbaz Sharif is grappling with significant challenges, including a deep fiscal crisis, rising militant violence, and heightened political instability. To address the economic crisis, the government secured a $7 billion three-year loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a vital step to avoid a sovereign default. However, meeting the IMF’s conditions—such as implementing austerity measures, raising taxes, and cutting subsidies—has provoked public discontent, as these actions have increased the cost of living. Although these reforms have improved foreign reserves and reduced inflation, further subsidy cuts and fiscal discipline requirements threaten to exacerbate poverty and unemployment, undermining the coalition’s political standing.
Simultaneously, the government is facing escalating security threats, with a sharp rise in militant violence, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Militant attacks, primarily by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), have caused significant casualties, highlighting the need for a cohesive counter-insurgency strategy. However, political fragmentation following the February elections has hindered such coordination. The provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, controlled by the opposition PTI, has been at odds with federal authorities over approaches to dealing with the TTP, weakening efforts to counter militancy effectively.
Compounding these challenges are tensions with Pashtun and Baloch nationalist groups, which allege electoral manipulation and marginalization. Crackdowns on moderate nationalist movements risk alienating local populations, potentially creating a political vacuum that militants could exploit. In Balochistan, similar grievances among Baloch nationalist groups fuel mistrust, with militants increasingly positioning themselves as the only viable alternative for addressing local discontent.
BREAKING THE DEADLOCK
ICG concludes that Pakistan faces a challenging political deadlock with little chance of the ruling coalition meeting the PTI-led opposition’s demands for a revision of the February election results or the immediate release of Imran Khan. However, opportunities exist for progress through dialogue and compromise within parliamentary and judicial frameworks, provided all parties recognize the risks of further polarizing the political system. Parliament remains a potential space for constructive engagement, with standing committees offering a platform for cross-party collaboration on issues such as judicial reform, election reform, and gender-sensitive legislation.
These committees have seen moments of cooperation, such as PTI’s participation in judicial reform discussions, indicating possibilities for broader political reconciliation.
Economic challenges further complicate the political landscape, with the government needing to balance IMF-mandated austerity measures with enhanced social protections for the most vulnerable, especially women. The PTI, despite its opposition, must avoid undermining necessary economic reforms and instead contribute to stability through parliamentary dialogue on fiscal policies. Building consensus on economic issues could provide a foundation for reducing political turmoil and fostering recovery.
The judiciary is under pressure as it adjudicates high-profile cases central to the political divide. While courts have occasionally ruled in favor of PTI, the judicial system faces criticism for delays in addressing election-related disputes and inconsistent protections for civil liberties. Speedy resolution of pending cases could help restore public trust in the electoral process.
International actors, including the U.S., EU, and UK, have criticized the February elections for lacking fairness and have called for investigations into irregularities. While they remain cautious about pressuring Pakistan, given its strategic importance, they emphasize the need for Islamabad to uphold democratic norms. Through a mix of public diplomacy and engagement with Pakistan’s parliament, these foreign partners aim to encourage political stability and respect for constitutional freedoms, which are crucial for both domestic progress and international relations.