April 14, 2024
By Xari Jalil
LAHORE
Pakistan is still reeling from the effects of the 2022 floods that have ended up killing at least 1,739 people, displacing thousands, and incurring economic losses equal to trillions of Rupees. Rains that were heavier than the average monsoon rains, along with rapidly melting glaciers, resulted in flooding that year, which last from June to October. By August the government had declared a state of emergency.
Shahmoor Ali, a resident of the Karampur village in District Jamshoro, said he had lost his home overnight, and he has still not been able to overcome the trauma of the continuous deluge.
“At first it was just light rain, and we thought it would end in an hour, maybe in one day, but it never stopped,” he remembers. “It was night, about 2am, and our house had begun to collapse. We thought okay by morning it will stop raining, but it didn’t. In the morning we saw that everything was under water. The rains we saw, we have never seen anything more dangerous. Now we pray for God to kill us before he sends rains like that again. That’s how much rain there was. Now whenever it rains, we get scared.”
Heavy, continuous rainfall during the monsoon months, and the excessively melting glaciers causing rivers to swell and burst, an impact of rising temperatures in the region which have ended up in changing weather patterns.
Pakistan’s majestic northern mountains – the Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Karakorum ranges – collectively known as the HKH are facing a silent crisis. Once a source of life-giving water, the region’s glaciers are now rapidly melting due to climate change, transforming them into unpredictable harbingers of destruction. These melting glaciers are forming thousands of glacial lakes – ticking time bombs known as GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods).
One of the most known GLOFs – a beautiful lake called the Attabad Lake – in the Hunza Valley was formed in 2010, thanks to a climate change disaster. The lake, approximately 21 kilometers long, with a maximum depth of around 358 feet, was created after a massive landslide occurred in the region due to melting glaciers.
The formation of the lake led to the displacement of thousands of people who were living in the surrounding areas. The landslide destroyed many homes and livelihoods, and the local community was forced to relocate to other areas. The construction of the Karakoram Highway, which runs along the southern edge of the lake, also caused the displacement of many residents.
Baba Jan, a community activist and a local political worker, was also one of the protesters, over which he was arrested by the police and jailed for nine years. He is known as the first climate prisoner of Pakistan.
“Look at where the Hopper glacier was 20 years ago, and where it was 10 years ago,” he says. “Its going down, its melting. Its all going down. The reason is environmental destruction. The whole world must take responsibility. Today our main question is how to save the whole world. Without that none of us will survive. You want to go to Mars, fine, but this heaven where we live, lets save that first!”
Haji Bibi, President of Ghulkin Women’s Association, Ghulkin Village, Gilgit Baltistan, also fears a similar threat.
“Because of climate change we are in a lot of danger,” she says. “We are often afraid. At different points the glacier is bursting. For our village, our area and our lives there is a real danger. Because of climate change the glaciers are melting away. Before the glaciers were growing and coming forward, now they’re going backwards.
Exacerbated by rising temperatures, GLOFs pose a serious threat to millions living downstream in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as well as along the course of the Indus River. Over 3,000 glacial lakes identified, 33 are categorized as critically hazardous, ready to burst at any moment. The resulting floods unleash millions of cubic meters of water and debris, causing widespread devastation.
The impact goes beyond the immediate flood zones. These outbursts cascade through valleys, affecting downstream communities and ecosystems. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has highlighted the urgency of addressing this issue, as over 7.1 million people in these areas are vulnerable, with a significant portion living below the poverty line.
Climate Change
Pakistan’s GLOF crisis is a stark manifestation of the broader climate crisis. Rising winter temperatures are leading to increased rainfall and accelerated glacier melt. This has resulted in a surge of natural disasters, including landslides, glacial outbursts, and flash floods. The devastating 2022 floods, which affected a third of the country, serve as a grim reminder of the security threats posed by climate change.
The science is clear: global warming is causing air and sea temperatures to rise, leading to more evaporation and intense monsoon rainfall. This, coupled with the swelling of the Indus River during monsoon seasons, creates a recipe for catastrophic flooding.
A report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) says the region’s glaciers are melting 65 per cent faster in the 2010s than in the previous decade, and that these glaciers could lose up to 80% of their current volume by 2100.
For climate vulnerable countries like Pakistan, the devastating consequences of disappearing glaciers are in the form of rising landslides, floods, erratic rain and snowfall, extreme rain, droughts, and heatwaves.
Unprecedented and largely irreversible changes to the HKH cryosphere, driven by global temperature rises, threaten 2 billion people and are accelerating species extinction.
A Glimmer of Hope?
Projects like GLOF-II by the UNDP, aim to help equip communities with early warning systems, improving infrastructure, and building disaster preparedness. This initiative also claims to empowers women, a crucial step towards ensuring food security in the face of climate disruptions.