October 2, 2026
By Hashir Ahsan
ISLAMABAD
According to the third quarter of the 2026 security report released by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), a sensational surge of 83 percent has been recorded in casualties linked to terrorism and counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan.
The report reveals that the declining trend in violence and fatalities observed in the first and second quarters of the year has now completely ended, and the country’s security situation has experienced its most alarming intensity since 2021.
The primary driver behind this nationwide increase is the southwestern province of Balochistan, where the number of fatalities more than tripled. Balochistan contributed nearly 88 percent to the overall national increase and surpassed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to earn the painful distinction of becoming the country’s most affected region in terms of both total recorded violent incidents and fatalities.
The report’s statistics show that nearly three-fourths of the nationwide increase in fatalities during the third quarter comprised anti-state elements and terrorists, whose casualties more than doubled in security operations. On the other hand, however, overall fatalities among civilians and security personnel also saw a significant increase of approximately 54 percent, indicating that the impact of security challenges was felt equally and devastatingly across all sides.
Statistics
Taking a comprehensive look at the overall figures, during the third quarter of 2026, CRSS recorded a total of at least 385 violent incidents involving terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations, resulting in 1,415 fatalities and 558 injuries. In terms of regional impact and geographical distribution, southwestern Balochistan and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remained the primary epicenters of domestic violence.
Together, these two provinces accounted for 98 percent of all violence-related fatalities, with Balochistan recording nearly 59 percent of total deaths (829 individuals), while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded over 39 percent (556 fatalities).
Balochistan also recorded the highest number of violent incidents during the third quarter at 186 incidents (over 48 percent of the total), followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 173 incidents (nearly 45 percent).
However, in terms of injuries, KP topped the list with 376 injured individuals (over 67 percent of total injuries), whereas 163 individuals (over 29 percent) were injured in Balochistan. Compared to the previous quarter, there was a dramatic 83 percent increase in terrorism and response operations nationwide, with fatalities rising from 774 in Q2 to 1,415 in Q3. The core reason for this was an extraordinary jump of 213 percent in Balochistan, where deaths increased from 265 to 829.
In Balochistan, fatalities had previously decreased by 40 percent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter (from 443 down to 265). Similarly, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also witnessed an increase of over 17 percent during Q3, with fatalities rising from 475 to 556.
In other regions, fatalities in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) rose from 5 to 10, reflecting a 100 percent increase, while fatalities in Punjab decreased from 12 to 8 (a 33 percent decline), in Sindh from 14 to 12 (a 14 percent decline), and in Gilgit-Baltistan from 3 down to zero, representing a 100 percent reduction.
An analysis of victim categorization reveals that the largest portion of reported fatalities—over 65 percent (921 deaths)—consisted of militants and outlawed elements who were killed as a result of around 154 operations by security forces, while their share in injuries was only 5 percent (27 injured).
Civilians ranked second with 254 fatalities (18 percent) and security personnel third with 240 fatalities (17 percent), falling victim to 145 (38 percent) and 86 (22 percent) terrorist attacks, respectively. During this period, 284 civilians (51 percent) and 247 security personnel (44 percent) were injured.
Emerging trends
Six key security trends emerge from these statistics. The first and most significant aspect is the 103 percent increase in militant fatalities, rising from 453 in Quarter 2 to 921 in Quarter 3; out of the total additional 641 casualties nationwide, 468 were terrorists, accounting for three-fourths of the entire increase.
The second trend shows that civilian and security force fatalities also increased by 36 percent (187 to 254) and 79 percent (134 to 240), respectively, pushing their combined loss of life up by 54 percent from 321 to 494. The third trend indicates that 95 percent of the injury burden (531 individuals) was borne by civilians and security forces, with civilians making up more than half.
Fourth, compared to only 5 percent of terrorists being injured, their heavy death toll highlights the extraordinarily decisive and intense nature of the security operations. Fifth, there was a massive 111 percent increase (117 to 247) in injuries among security forces, whereas civilian injuries rose by 39 percent (205 to 284), meaning the rate of injuries among security forces grew much faster.
Sixth and finally, security personnel fatalities (240) drew extremely close to civilian fatalities (254), leaving a gap of only 14 deaths between them, whereas in Q2 this
difference stood at 53 fatalities.
Responsibility for attacks, tactics, and emerging technological challenges
Among the banned and terrorist organizations claiming responsibility for attacks, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged as the most lethal and formidable group in Quarter 3 2026, claiming 13 attacks that resulted in 117 deaths and 65 injuries. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for five attacks that killed 34 people and injured 42.
Meanwhile, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group claimed three attacks resulting in 27 deaths and 129 severe injuries, marking the highest number of injuries caused by any single group’s attacks.
Historically, attacks claimed by TTP since 2021 have caused higher fatalities compared to BLA (706 versus 650); however, in the overall record for 2026 so far, BLA has held the upper hand over TTP, with its attacks resulting in 173 deaths compared to 165 fatalities linked to TTP. A granular examination of these terrorist activities by tactic reveals a stark contrast between methods that caused higher fatalities and those that resulted in higher injuries. Nine Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) suicide attacks affected 285 people in total—with 81 deaths and 204 injuries—representing the largest total casualties of any tactic, far exceeding the 35 casualties caused by three other suicide bombings.
In contrast, armed attacks caused the highest number of fatalities, with 61 distinct incidents resulting in 147 deaths and 116 injuries. Direct firing and shooting incidents proved exceptionally lethal, with 58 events reporting 72 deaths and only 18 injuries—meaning four people were killed for every one injured. Additionally, 30 cases involving mutilated or recovered bodies resulted in 77 deaths, while a single incident of target killing following abduction claimed 31 lives with no injuries reported. A new and deeply concerning dimension emerged in the form of drone attacks, where the proportion of injuries far outweighed fatalities; 16 drone attacks resulted in 13 deaths and 48 injuries, meaning nearly four people were injured for every single fatality.
Vehicle suicide blasts and drone attacks technically demonstrated how modern violent tactics are disproportionately causing heavy numbers of injuries and disabilities.